Ayawaso East Goes to the Polls on March 3 — Ghana’s First By-Election of 2026 Is a Battle for Nima-Mamobi’s Soul
Ghana's Electoral Commission has confirmed that 49,966 registered voters in the Ayawaso East Constituency will cast ballots on March 3, 2026 to choose a replacement for the late MP Mahama Naser Toure. NDC's Baba Jamal goes in as favourite in a seat the party has held since 1992 — but vote-buying allegations, a presidential recall, and NPP momentum make this more than a foregone conclusion.
Why This Seat Is Vacant
The Ayawaso East by-election was triggered by the death of the sitting Member of Parliament, Alhaji Mahama Naser Toure, on January 4, 2026, following a brief illness while receiving treatment at the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital. The veteran legislator had held the seat for over a decade, winning it with 70.85% of the vote in the 2024 general election and consistently delivering commanding majorities for the NDC across his tenure.
Under Article 112(5) of Ghana’s 1992 Constitution, the Electoral Commission is mandated to organise a by-election within three months of a seat falling vacant. Parliament formally declared the seat vacant, and the EC set March 3, 2026 as polling day. Nominations were received between February 9 and February 11, 2026.
The Candidates
Five candidates are on the ballot. The top position went to Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed of the NDC, who drew the first ballot slot at the February 12 balloting ceremony. Baba Jamal — a veteran politician and former Ghana High Commissioner to Nigeria — won the NDC internal primary on February 7, 2026, narrowly defeating the late MP’s widow, Hajia Amina Adam, by 431 votes to 399. His win was immediately clouded by allegations of vote-buying, prompting President Mahama to recall him from his ambassadorial post. A party investigation was launched.
In the third ballot position is Yussif Baba Ali of the NPP — a candidate with deep party roots whom the NPP selected after extensive consultations. Independent candidates Alhaji Mohammed Umaru Sanda (ballot 4) and David Akonor (ballot 5) complete the field. Ibrahim Iddrisu of the Liberal People’s Party drew the second spot.
“Ayawaso East has been an NDC stronghold since 1992. In the 2024 general election, the late MP won with 70.85% of the vote.” — Ghana News Agency campaign report, February 26, 2026
The Political Landscape
Ayawaso East — encompassing the densely populated communities of Nima and Mamobi in Greater Accra — has been an NDC bastion since Ghana returned to multiparty democracy in 1992. The late MP’s 70.85% share in 2024 (22,139 votes to the NPP’s 9,110) gives the NDC a commanding structural advantage. Historically, the NDC has won the constituency in every parliamentary election since its establishment.
The NPP, however, sees the internal NDC turmoil — the vote-buying allegations, the recall of Baba Jamal, and the perceived slight to the late MP’s widow — as a potential opening. General Secretary Justin Kodua Frimpong and former General Secretary John Boadu personally canvassed in “Gutter,” a key community, while Baba Ali has focused on youth empowerment and community development as his campaign pillars.
NDC Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia took to the streets of Nima and the Islamic Research Institute ahead of polling day, reflecting the party’s determination to hold the seat despite its internal distractions.
The Electoral Commission’s Preparations
EC Director Sam Dottoh Kwaah confirmed on February 28, 2026 that the commission is “well prepared” for the contest. Ballot papers were sent to the constituency on Saturday, February 28. The Ghana Police Service has deployed for security following a “show of force” exercise the week prior. CCTV coverage at key locations and enhanced observer access have been arranged. The EC has emphasised that while internal party conduct is a private matter, the general election will be held to the highest standards of transparency.
Analysts from Global InfoAnalytics had predicted NDC would retain the seat ahead of the primary. The NDC’s challenge now is to transform internal party machinery into on-the-ground voter mobilisation in a constituency where turnout — not just preference — determines margins.
What the Result Will Signal
The outcome of Ayawaso East will be the first electoral verdict on the Mahama government since the December 2024 general election. A comfortable NDC victory confirms the party’s grassroots resilience in its core urban strongholds. A closer-than-expected result, or an NPP upset, would signal that the internal NDC divisions and the government’s economic messaging have not yet fully translated into voter confidence on the ground.
For the broader Ghanaian diaspora watching from the UK, US, Canada, and Germany, the contest also spotlights the political temperature in Accra at a moment when the government’s “Resetting Ghana” agenda faces its first significant test beyond the national headlines.
